I HAVE not seen the new International Monetary Fund report on the Zimbabwean economy, but I think I can describe its analysis of our situation as “fragile”.
They certainly list us as a fragile State in their 2014 report on the status of African economies and they also recognise that we are not making progress.
In fact, I think the situation is worse than this, The Finance minister and the Reserve Bank governor both continue to claim that we can expect growth this year.
Even John Robertson, well known for his pessimistic projections of our prospects, says he only expects a decline of 1% to 2%. I see little sign of anything of the sort, with VAT (value added tax) receipts down by a third in the last quarter and clear beer sales down by 30% this year over last.
I cannot for the life of me imagine that we are going to see anything other than a steep decline in economic activity this year.
In July 2013, we had 23 functioning banks. Today there are 14 and several of those may go to the wall before long. The collapse of so many banks and the reduction in the declared profits of all banks by half this year after last, is the clearest signal that we are back in a full blown economic crisis.
Last week, junior doctors were on strike and just recently I heard that a major local mental hospital was appealing for food to feed their patients. Conditions in our prisons, already serious, are now desperate.
Revenues to the State are declining and the Finance minister told us last week that 82% of all revenues were now being absorbed by employment costs, up from 60% last year. We have to ask ourselves: Are we on the edge of a full blown economic collapse?
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It started with the outcome of the 2013 elections which took everyone by surprise — even the winners. The economy judged the outcome harshly with flight of capital from the banks and the country, and the collapse of the stock market by over 30%.
Since then, we have seen accelerated company closures and bank failures and confidence in all sectors is at an all-time low.
The most serious aspect of it all is that the government, led by President Robert Mugabe, seems to have no idea at all about what to do about the crisis.
They seem to be locked in a policy paralysis that stops them doing what is required to slow the decline and then turn it around.
Every day the papers are loaded with stories of infighting and squabbles. This adds to the atmosphere of uncertainty and instability.
Just below these lofty dog fights, there is another layer of infighting — recently the leader of Chipangano, the criminal Zanu PF gang that has terrorised Mbare for two years or more, was kidnapped, savagely beaten and dumped along airport road.
The golden boys of Zanu PF businesspeople are all under attack and threats. It seems that Zanu PF is engaged in an orgy of self-destruction and conflict.
What we need is new and strong leadership with a clear grasp of the extent and depth of our problems, and a willingness to do what is required quickly.
MDC leader Welshman Ncube and MDC-Renewal’s Tendai Biti are trying to craft a political alliance that will gain some traction, but multiply a zero with a zero and you still come up with nothing. No political alliance in the opposition makes any sense without the MDC led by Morgan Tsvangirai.
Our own position following a successful congress and the adoption of a new roadmap and policies for the future; puts us in a leading position once more to take up the cudgels of change.
It is time that Ncube and his ilk admitted that they cost us change in 2008 and they must not make the same mistake twice.
We need to find out what is wrong, agree on how to put things right and then push Zanu PF once more into negotiations. This time with no compromise on the issues of governance and democracy.
The first thing to tackle would be legal — re-establish our judiciary as a centre of power and control over the State, ensuring the rule of law, equality before the law and the independence and professionalism of our bench.
The second priority would be corruption — do not try to tell us that we do not know who is corrupt. We know. We need to take action against a few high-level ministers, officials, generals and businesspeople who are clearly corrupt and unable to explain their wealth. We must crack down on petty corruption on our roads and at our border posts.
The third priority is to scrap indigenisation. I have always said that no company, from anywhere in the world would tolerate a situation where they are required by law, to hand over 51% of their shares and with that full management control to people whom they do not even know.
It’s all very well saying the law is “misunderstood”, but you are dealing with a regime that has just stolen $30 billion in assets from thousands of local businesses.
We have to get down and do the detailed work across the board, put our affairs in order and eliminate the obstacles to investment Do all that and we will turn Zimbabwe around.
Eddie Cross is MDC-T MP for Bulawayo South. This article first appeared on his website www.eddiecross.africanherd.com
