Vice-President Joice Mujuru’s faction within Zanu PF has been systematically and ruthlessly targeted over the past four weeks and in just a week her allies, including former party spokesperson Rugare Gumbo, have been forcibly revolved from the political arena leaving her isolated and vulnerable.
What is likely to happen come the party’s congress? What options are left for Mujuru?
I will attempt to offer my humble analysis on emerging and possible scenarios vis-a-vis the fate of Mujuru and the likely outcome of the congress.
While some people think we should not bother to interrogate or analyse what happens within Zanu PF, this would be the height of naïvety and political immaturity as what happens within Zanu PF is likely to have a significant impact on what happens on the country’s political landscape.
This should be of interest to academics, civil society, opposition parties, the business sector and us as ordinary Zimbabweans.
A split within Zanu PF, for example, may be beneficial for opposition politics and the likelihood of violence spilling over to affect the general public cannot be ruled out.
The remote yet significant likelihood of military intervention is undesirable, but possible and would have a drastic impact on both the economy and the politics of the country.
I will leave such a scenario for another day when both energy and intellect allow.
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What is obvious is that the faction led by Justice minister Emmerson Mnangagwa has the overt backing of President Robert Mugabe and this is for the attainment of short-term political goals which are of mutual benefit to Mnangagwa and Mugabe.
Mujuru is a clear threat to the presidency of Mugabe in the party and it has become apparent that she is being punished for being ambitious and seeking the biggest prize — the presidency of the party and country.
Mnangagwa needs Mugabe to checkmate Mujuru. In the long term, possibly in the post-Mugabe era (or is it error), he is definitely eyeing the presidency.
In this he may have the support of the Chinese who have a keen interest in succession issues in Zimbabwe.
What could happen: A number of factors will be put into consideration when putting in place the new leadership including ethnic balancing, Unity Accord dynamics, gender considerations and factional dynamics. To this end, the following scenarios could obtain.
Mugabe could decide on any of the following scenarios either by direct appointment after the amendment of the constitution or manipulation of party structures.
If Mnangagwa emerges as one of the vice-presidents, then it means he would replace Mujuru on the pre-Unity Accord basis as a Zanu PF person, in which case it may be necessary to have a female vice-president from the old Zapu.
People that could spring a surprise include Small and Medium Enterprises minister Sithembiso Nyoni and Bulawayo Provincial Affairs minister Eunice Sandi-Moyo.
The third scenario is to have Women Affairs minister Oppah Muchinguri as a vice-president and either Report Mphoko or Zanu PF national chairperson Simon Khaya Moyo as vice-president from the former Zapu side.
Yet another scenario is that of dark horse Defence minister Sydney Sekeremai as a vice-president and a female from the former Zapu as a vice-president.
We cannot dismiss the possibility of a weaker Mujuru being re-appointed or elected with either Mphoko or Home Affairs minister Kembo Mohadi as vice-president.
Khaya Moyo may suffer by virtue of earlier for not being sufficiently clear about his allegiance to a faction.
It is a reality that Mugabe may not want the Mnangagwa faction to become too strong by having two vice-presidents from the same faction.
It would thus, be beneficial for Mugabe to have vice-presidents from both factions.
Options for Mujuru Mujuru as a trained combatant will know that not every battle is worth fighting and she may decide it is not worthy to suffer humiliation at congress.
She has the option of just lying low, rebuilding her political life and launching a bid for the presidency at the next congress.
She can decide to step aside and have the luxury of choosing to partner with one of the opposition parties together with other expelled members from Zanu PF.
This would present Zanu PF with a nightmare in the 2018 elections as the combination of MDC-Renewal, MDC, Zapu, remnants of Zanu PF and the MDC-T will definitely defeat Zanu PF in an election in 2018.
Her other option is to brave it and fight for dear life at the congress which is a possibility, but apparently Mugabe has not left anything to chance and has decimated Mujuru’s stranglehold over the provinces.
Her remaining allies will live in fear of being victimised and isolated. Whatever the case is, she can still make it especially if she is patient and strategises well beyond the congress.
On the other hand, she could be the victim of new political dynamics in the post-2018 era which could see new political debutants making an entry into politics and changing the way politics is done.
All things are possible.
Dumisani Nkomo is an activist, social entrepreneur and chief executive officer of Habakkuk Trust. He writes in his personal capacity.
