As we meet this evening, Zimbabwe is again at an “interesting” place.
The outcome will determine the immediate events in my country and maybe even the longer term. The past determines the future and we need to quickly summarise what has gone on in that country since 1997.
In 1997, the Mugabe regime made a number of strategic errors; as a consequence the country began a slide into destitution that would last a decade.
During that time the South African government, which has always played a critical and pivotal role in Zimbabwean affairs, used its diplomatic and economic influence to ensure that Mugabe remained in power, going to extraordinary lengths the prevent a takeover by the Trade Union led Movement for Democratic Change.
When finally the South African administration decided it could no longer stand aside and watch its northern neighbour self-destruct it stepped in and in a dramatic series of events it forced talks between the three main political parties in 2007 and persuaded the G8 leaders to help finance the stability and then the recovery of the country after elections in March 2008.
After initial success, Mbeki botched the operation and allowed Mugabe to once again hold onto power, but in a supervised Government of National Unity.
This was supposed to last two years, ran for four and then collapsed in a flurry of legal and political measures which forced elections in July 2013 despite the failure to implement the reforms necessary to hold a credible election process.
In the subsequent elections, a military led campaign, funded by considerable resources from illicit diamond and gold sales, the Zanu PF Party was returned to power with a two thirds majority.
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Once again the electoral process was adjudged not free and fair and the international community withheld recognition.
There were no celebrations, the country went into mourning and markets savaged what was left of the economy.
The stock market fell by a third, a quarter of the cash reserves of the Banks fled to safety and capital flight reached new heights. The fragile recovery instituted by the GNU in 2009, halted and was then reversed.
Today a third of all our Banks have failed in the past 18 months, deflation has taken hold and our GDP is again in steep decline.
To compound his difficulties, the party of Mugabe has begun to disintegrate under his feet and may not survive the next few weeks in its present form.
The key to this situation is the declining health of Mugabe, who is over 90, suffering from Prostate problems and other ailments and who now shows all the signs of reduced power and authority.
As control of the centers of power slips from his hands, competition for control and succession has taken center stage and two principal contenders have emerged – Mnangagwa, currently Minister of Justice and Joice Mujuru, currently vice president.
While within the ruling Party, Mujuru has held sway and clearly controlled the majority, Mnangagwa has control of the levers of hard power in the State and has shown that he is a very clever and devious opponent.
In a series of swift and devastating attacks he has disabled the Mujuru political machine in advance of the Zanu PF elective Congress on the 2nd of December and looks increasingly as if he will emerge as nominated successor to Mugabe.
Eddie Cross is MDC MP for Bulawayo South. This article first appeared on his website
www.eddiecross.africanherd.com
