PRESIDENT Robert Mugabe celebrated his 91st birthday amidst unmitigated praise singing and an unprecedented bootlicking scramble from his political acolytes alongside desperate political party pilgrims desperate to pay homage to their nonagenarian leader at the temple of a modern day gerontocracy(rule of the elderly).
What is of great concern, however, to any responsible citizen is what will happen if and when inevitably due to natural attrition, biological inevitability and the call of divinity the president is unable to continue with his journey in life!
At the age of 91 such a possibility inevitably increases by the day and any institution or political party which ignores this reality is oblivious and impervious to both reason and wisdom.
While in our culture it is taboo to talk about issues of death with regards the living in the case of a country ruled by a nonagenarian such thoughts and debates are critical not only in terms of succession planning but also of futuristic planning and scenario management.
It is as a clear as the sky that there is no unanimity about Emerson Mnangagwa being the “anointed successor” of Mugabe as stated by Jonathan Moyo who argued that the vice-president was not “anointed but appointed”.
The fight for succession is far from over and importantly the death or demise of Mugabe could trigger a crisis not only in Zanu PF but in the opposition.
The demise or death of Mugabe could leave the opposition in shambles as for years the departure of Mugabe has been a rallying call and when this finally happens outside the confines of electoral processes but due to natural and inevitable natural processes, the opposition will be left without a clarion call or rallying point.
This would be more problematic for the opposition if he is replaced by a younger, reform minded individual as this would render the opposition irrelevant.
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The continued existence and presence of Mugabe on the political scene has thus, been oxymoronic for them since he has created a groundswell of popular sentiment against himself, but at the same time his presence seems to have gelled Zanu PF and none of the factions are capable of removing him while he is still alive.
His demise could, however, also be the demise of the fractious Zanu PF which has only survived because of four factors namely:
Backing of the military and other State security apparatus,
The existence of a strong dictatorial nationalist figure epitomising the liberation struggle (Mugabe),
Incumbency,
Brute force – through coercive legislation.
Zanu PF in spite of all its structures and liberation ideology, is likely to crumble into fragments once Mugabe goes as this could mean the collapse of an entire patronage system and the re-emergence of old and new camps.
It is already clear that those who are purported to be in Mnangagwa’s camp were or are united more for their desire to eliminate Joice Mujuru from the political scene rather than mere friendship.
Machiavellian politics is driven by interests not friendship. It is quite possible and probable that once Mugabe goes some will attempt to torpedo the Ngwena from that post from within his camp.
Mujuru is not totally finished as she still has a sizeable number of Members of Parliament that are in her camp and if the next president is chosen by the party which has the majority number of seats in Parliament and if this is left to Parliament to vote, Mujuru still has a chance to emerge as a presidential hopeful assuming that it is not the Politburo which will do that.
This is only possible technically but practically and politically the party and the government according to Zanu PF, are one.
Complications will arise upon Mugabe’s demise because the party will no longer have a central rallying figure able to glue it together either by virtue of age or through playing factions against each other.
The hate speech which Zanu PF factions have been using against each other is likely to then translate into open conflict which may have direct consequences on national stability.
Sections of the military may choose to openly associate or back one faction over the other, a situation which is untenable at the moment.
It is possible but unlikely that there would be a smooth transition with a new leader possibly Mnangagwa being elected as president from within Zanu PF, but if this happens the Mujuru faction might join forces with the opposition either covertly or overtly and challenge Zanu PF in 2018.
If his happens Mnangagwa may win the battle for succession in the short term, but in the long term lose the 2018 elections.
Mayibuye!
Dumisani Nkomo is an activist, social entrepreneur and chief executive officer of Habakkuk Trust. He writes in his personal capacity.
