THE emergence of First Lady Grace Mugabe as a political force — or is it farce — has caused an upheaval within Zanu PF and indeed caused consternation, amusement, amazement and shock in the general populace.
Instead of uniting the warring Zanu PF factions, the First Lady has actually deepened the factionalism within the ruling party.
However, this is only a superficial analysis and one needs to dig deeper to elicit the deeper causes of the emergence of Grace and what this means for the country for the next five to 10 years.
While it is easy to dismiss this as internal Zanu PF politics or as typical Zanu PF diversion strategy, there is need to understand the dynamics within Zanu PF since it is the ruling party by fair means or foul (this is not the subject for now). We need to ask deeper questions in order to get deeper answers: Will Grace Mugabe split Zanu PF? Who is behind this new shenanigan?
Is it the so-called (Justice minister) Emmerson Mnangagwa faction causing this stir, is it President Robert Mugabe himself or has the First Lady developed an appetite for politics?
What has to be clearly understood is that in Machiavellian politics, as indeed in most political contestations, there are no permanent fiends.
There is no such thing as permanent factions or permanent allegiances to specific factions. Allegiances and loyalties may change from time to time depending on the factors on the ground.
A typical example ironically is that of Vice-President Joice Mujuru who sprang up to become vice-president of Zanu PF from almost nowhere.
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At that particular time Mnangagwa had to be stopped and the only way of doing so was to introduce the gender card to the VP race. In spite of massive mobilisation with up to six provinces backing Mnangagwa he was checkmated at the last minute and Mujuru was catapulted to the vice-presidency from the women’s league.
Another example is that of the charismatic Jabulani Sibanda who at one time was viewed as a Mnangagwa ally, but has recently been bludgeoned by the First Lady for ignoring her rallies. Some speculate that he may have changed factions, but all this is speculation.
Congress politics! If Mujuru was used to block the ascendance of Mnangagwa in the past, is it then possible that Grace is also being used by a faction to stop Mujuru’s presidential ambitions?
Is there a possibility that she was contemplating going for the big one during congress and this was a pre-emptive strike. Once again this is a wild guess, but a good one as well. If this is the case — and it may not be — the First Lady may be just temporarily blocking Mujuru from attempting any big move for the congress and thus give other factions time to regroup and reposition.
I say other factions because there may be more than two factions. Those who do not appear to be in any faction may emerge as ideal alternative candidates for succession because of their perceived neutrality.
Is Grace going for the big one? It is possible that the First Lady may be considered for the vice-presidency and even in the long term the presidency.
This is both unlikely and undesirable as the late Masiphula Sithole would have put it.
The rallies that the First Lady has addressed have caused more uproar and division as they have exposed her lack of maturity and depth as a politician.
However, in the bigger scheme of things, political strategists on her side may envisage benefit from her rantings as this will divert Mujuru temporarily and possibly drain energy from her faction so that they focus on defending their turf and not on conquering power.
It must be noted that Mugabe would not support a stronger faction permanently, but would most probably play the factions against each other and in the process consolidate power.
Whenever a faction becomes too strong, it gets weakened and Mugabe may allow the weakening of such a faction.
However, given his health concerns, succession has become a real issue and the imperative of protecting Mugabe’s economic empire is a factor.
The Grace phenomenon is, however, not new as we must remember that almost every five years individuals within Zanu PF emerge and these appear to control political space without any formal consent.
Inevitably, they soon vanish from the political scene through various means including attrition, natural, divine and or man-made means.
These include Chenjerai Hunzvi who literally appeared to be in charge of the country with his “land invasions”, Border Gezi who was accused by the late Professor Edison Zvobgo of being a “young boy excited about his new toy”, Elliot Manyika, Jonathan Moyo and Gideon Gono.
All of them appeared at one time or the other to be in charge, but once they had fulfilled set political objectives, they ceased to be relevant. The difference in this case is that Grace is the First Lady and she has interests to protect.
Dumisani Nkomo is an activist, social entrepreneur and chief executive officer of Habakkuk Trust. He writes in his personal capacity.
