ZIMBABWE’S journey towards an upper-middle-income economy by 2030 is anchored in the National Development Strategy 1 (NDS 1), which outlines agriculture as one of the key productive sectors driving sustainable economic growth, food security and employment creation.
With 2025 marking the final year of NDS 1, the Mid-Term Budget and Economic Review arrived at a crucial turning point, not just for fiscal recalibration, but also for reasserting agriculture’s role as the cornerstone of resilience and transformation.
The 2025 Mid-Term Budget and Economic Review, presented by Finance minister Mthuli Ncube under the theme Building Resilience for Sustained Economic Transformation signalled a pivotal recalibration of Zimbabwe’s agricultural policy to anchor economic recovery, ensure food security and propel inclusive growth.
With NDS 1 nearing its final implementation phase, agriculture is once again positioned as a critical lever to realise Vision 2030.
From adversity to recovery: Agriculture as the growth driver
The Zimbabwean economy is expected to register a solid 6% GDP growth in 2025, rebounding from a modest 1,7% in 2024.
This resurgence is driven largely by a remarkable 21,1% projected growth in agriculture, a sector that contributes approximately 9,3% to GDP.
The sector’s resurgence is underpinned by the La Niña-induced favourable rainfall season, enabling record harvests across multiple crops including maize, traditional grains, tobacco and wheat.
- Financial inclusion critical for African agriculture success
- ZITF Company launches AfriConfex
- Film has potential of transforming economy
- FBC embarks on housing schemes
Keep Reading
According to the Agriculture ministry and Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency, maize output surged by 261%, from 634 699 metric tonnes in 2023/24 to 2,29 million tonnes in 2024/25, while traditional grains rose by over 430%.
This achievement exceeds national grain requirements and secures a 700 000-tonne surplus, a vital cushion against future climatic or geopolitical shocks.
This transformation is in line with NDS 1’s thrust to enhance agricultural productivity, resilience and sustainability through robust public-private sector collaboration, mechanisation, climate-smart agriculture and strategic input support.
Tobacco: A golden leaf still shining
Zimbabwe’s tobacco industry continues to anchor the economy’s foreign currency earnings.
As of July 21, 2025, 347,7 million kg of tobacco had been sold, a 52% increase from the previous season, valued at US$1,15 billion.
Although average prices declined marginally to US$3,33/kg, the volume growth more than compensated and farmers are now receiving 70% of their sales in USD, enhancing liquidity and investment in on-farm improvements.
This growth not only supports the nation’s export receipts but aligns with NDS 1’s export diversification goal.
The sector’s expansion has been supported by climate-smart practices, improved access to inputs and enhanced extension services.
Wheat and irrigation: Strengthening food security infrastructure
Building on previous successes, Zimbabwe surpassed its 2025 winter wheat target, planting 122 987 hectares against a 120 000-hectare goal.
This was achieved through innovative partnerships with the private sector and government input support, reinforcing the ambition for wheat self-sufficiency.
Simultaneously, irrigation capacity is being expanded to 350 000 hectares in 2025, a crucial hedge against climate volatility.
Already, 4 000 hectares have been rehabilitated and 250 hectares newly cleared under the Green Climate Fund and public investment, with ZiG94,4 million allocated for irrigation development during the first half of the year.
This is a bold step towards achieving sustainable year-round farming, consistent with NDS 1’s Climate Resilience and Agriculture Modernisation clusters.
Livestock and silos: Revitalising rural economies
A favourable season has improved pasture and water availability, leading to a 0,4% increase in the national beef herd and an 8,7% rise in dairy cattle, setting the stage for 5% growth in beef and 15% in milk production in 2025.
This recovery is vital for rural incomes and nutrition.
To complement the production boom, government has embarked on smart grain silo construction, aiming to triple storage capacity from 500 000MT to 1,5 million MT.
With seven artificial intelligence-powered facilities under development, including the recently commissioned 56 000MT Kwekwe smart silo, this investment (costing ZiG987,9 million to date) reduces post-harvest losses and stabilises grain markets — essential for long-term food security.
Development partner support and climate resilience
Despite a reduction in external support, Development Partners disbursed US$5,2 million during H1 2025 towards agriculture resilience.
Projects such as ZRBF II, launched in April 2025, are designed to reach 2,5 million people across Masvingo, Manicaland and Matabeleland South, focusing on food systems, climate-smart practices and rural livelihoods.
These initiatives resonate with NDS 1’s commitment to reducing poverty through inclusive, climate-resilient agriculture, bolstering smallholder capacities, and strengthening biodiversity conservation.
Market reforms and private sector participation
Government has shifted to a more liberalised grain marketing system, encouraging private buyers and the Zimbabwe Mercantile Exchange (ZMX) to absorb the bulk of this season’s harvest.
GMB’s procurement is capped at 100 000MT for strategic reserves at a competitive price of US$376/tonne, balancing market signals with national food security imperatives.
This reform is crucial in promoting price discovery, competitiveness and private capital mobilisation, addressing long-standing inefficiencies in grain marketing and aligning with NDS 1’s goal of modernising agricultural markets.
Challenges and strategic re-evaluation
While the outlook is optimistic, risks remain.
Global commodity price volatility, declining development assistance and trade frictions threaten external revenues.
Internally, post-harvest losses, delayed payment to farmers and climate unpredictability require continuous policy agility.
The government’s response anchored in the mid-term review is to mobilise domestic resources, invest in strategic infrastructure and empower rural farmers with modern tools and markets.
The creation of the Irrigation Development Alliance, bringing together public and private actors, is a welcome innovation, ensuring that national food security ambitions are matched with coordinated financing and implementation.
Conclusion
The 2025 mid-term budget reaffirms agriculture as Zimbabwe’s engine for broad-based, resilient growth.
With bumper harvests, smart infrastructural investments, market reforms and expanding irrigation, the country is pivoting from subsistence to a more commercial, technology-driven agricultural economy.
As the NDS 1 period concludes, these achievements signal tangible progress in transforming Zimbabwe to an upper-middle-income economy by 2030.
What remains is steadfast commitment policy consistency, fiscal discipline and enhanced accountability to fully unlock the sector's potential and shield gains from future shocks.
Indeed, Zimbabwe’s agricultural renaissance is not just about food. It is about economic sovereignty, rural transformation and sustainable national prosperity.
