BULAWAYO, SEPT 8 (SOUTHERN EYE LIVE) : Zimbabwe could face a major budgetary shock if the country receives below-normal rainfall during the 2026/27 agricultural season, with experts warning that government may be forced to divert funds from development projects towards food and nutrition security.
The warning was issued during a Bubi Community Parliament virtual discussion focusing on the implications of projected below-normal rainfall and dry conditions for Zimbabwe and Bubi in particular during the 2026/27 farming season.
Agricultural and livestock experts said the country was already experiencing changing weather patterns, including delayed onset of rains, early cessation of rainfall, shortened agricultural seasons and increasing drought frequency.
Thedius Mhute-Moyo, who has worked extensively in the tobacco sector and has an interest in climate change, said Zimbabwe had experienced significant changes in rainfall patterns over the past five decades.
“Over the past 50 years to date, changes in the seasons have been characterised by late onset of rains and the early ending of those rains, resulting in reduced rain days or shortened seasons,” Mhute-Moyo said.
He said analysis of climate data by the Zimbabwe National Geospatial and Space Agency (ZINGSA) showed that Zimbabwe's driest agro-ecological region was expanding.
According to the analysis, which covered climate data from 1982 to 2016, Natural Region Five expanded from 25.5 percent to 32.4 percent, representing an increase of 6.9 percentage points.
“This means Region Five is actually expanding,” Mhute-Moyo said, adding that the country's agro-ecological zones had changed significantly from the mapping undertaken in the 1960s.
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The consequences, he said, would include crop failures, food and nutrition insecurity and the erosion of farmers' productive assets.
Livestock farmers could be forced to sell off their beasts and other assets at below market prices to raise money for food, threatening their livelihoods and reducing their ability to recover after the drought.
“Farmers may end up selling productive assets for food, but the price is now what is being the case in most instances. They will buy livestock at very low prices or exchange their investment in livelihoods,” he said.
Mhute-Moyo warned that the anticipated drought could also place significant pressure on government finances.
“To the government, this issue of El Nino or the low rainfall which we are expecting in this 2026-2027 season means that the government is going to have a budgetary shock,” he said.
He explained that government budgets were normally prepared around expected levels of need, but a widespread drought could dramatically increase the number of people requiring assistance.
“That budgetary shock will result in failure to feed a much larger population than what could have been budgeted for,” he said.
Government could consequently be forced to temporarily defer some development programmes and redirect resources towards saving lives and preventing hunger.
“Development projects can be temporarily halted or stopped. Priority has to be given to ensuring food and nutrition security,” Mhute-Moyo said.
He also warned of increased malnutrition, particularly among children, as well as school dropouts as households struggle to pay school fees and provide food.
Animal scientist and founder of El Ganado Consultancy, Nqobani Manyabi, said Zimbabwe was experiencing a progressively drier and warmer climate, with climate change and El Nino contributing to increased weather variability.
He said the agricultural season had contracted as rains increasingly started late and ended early, requiring farmers to adjust their production strategies.
Manyabi said farmers could consider short-season crop varieties and drought-tolerant crops to reduce the risk of total crop failure.
He said rainfall had declined by about 10% compared with 20th-century baseline levels, while drought spells were becoming more frequent.
The warming trend was also increasing evaporation from dams and moisture loss from soils, further worsening water shortages.
According to Manyabi, below-normal rainfall could result in crop yields falling by 30 to 60% below average, while grass biomass could decline by between 40 and 60%.
The consequences for livestock would include overgrazing, deteriorating animal body condition, increased disease risks, water shortages and higher livestock feed costs.
He said farmers needed to prepare early by adjusting stocking levels and increasing fodder production.
“It's wise to destock and maintain the levels which you can afford to maintain,” Manyabi said, urging livestock farmers to sell animals while they were still in good condition rather than waiting until drought conditions severely depressed their value.
He also recommended increasing production of drought-tolerant fodder crops and using crop residues to supplement livestock feed.
Both experts called for increased government support to farmers and vulnerable households.
Mhute-Moyo proposed expanding food aid, village business units and school feeding programmes to help households maintain access to food and cash without being forced to dispose of productive assets.
He also called for targeted feeding programmes for infants and children who were out of school.
For livestock farmers, he said government should subsidise stock feeds and encourage suppliers to distribute feed through local agro-dealers to reduce transport costs.
He also urged authorities to expand cash-transfer programmes to rural areas and accelerate the Presidential Borehole Drilling Programme in communities that remain without reliable water sources.
In the longer term, Mhute-Moyo called for investment in new dams, irrigation schemes and the rehabilitation and desilting of existing dams.
Manyabi said government should strengthen agricultural extension services, particularly in remote communities, so farmers receive timely information on drought preparedness, water harvesting, livestock management and appropriate crop choices.
He also urged government to maintain strategic grain reserves and store grain at strategic locations to ensure supplies can reach communities during emergencies.
Other measures proposed included incentives for farmers producing drought-tolerant crops, promotion of small grains and increased support for farmers with appropriate seed, fertiliser, fodder and other inputs.
The experts said the projected dry season should therefore be treated not only as an agricultural challenge but as a potential national fiscal, food security and development crisis, requiring early intervention from government, farmers, development partners and communities.
